Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting

Table of Figures xi

Foreword xiii

Preface xv

Acknowledgements xxv

Section 1 ‘Why?’ 1

Chapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen 3

Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy 17

Section 2 Principles 33

Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose – the Cassandra Paradox 35

Chapter 3 Mastering Time – Delay and Decision 57

Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future 87

Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement – Learning to Love Error 125

Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive 151

Section 3 ‘Praxis’ 179

Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune 183

Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps 183

Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be? 198

Theme #3 ‘Whose job is it anyway?’ Roles and responsibilities 210

Section 4 Transformation 219

Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings 221

Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier 233

Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model? 243

Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection 257

Glossary 261

Appendix 1 – Design Principles: A Summary 267

Appendix 2 – Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics 275

References 289

Index 295