Energy Budgets at Risk (EBaR): A Risk Management Approach to Energy Purchase and Efficiency Choices

Chapter 1. Energy Markets and Budgets at Risk.

Recent Price Increases.

Applying Risk Management to Energy Budgets.

Energy Budgets At Risk Workshops.

An Overview of Energy Budgets at risk (EBaR).

A Look Back At Energy Prices.

A Look Forward: Energy Demand And Supply Factors.

Energy Price Forecasts.

Going Green – The Critical Role Of Efficiency Investments.

EBaR as A Policy Option.

Summary.

Chapter 2. Facilities Efficiency Options.

Facility Energy Management.

Efficiency Options.

Calculating Cost And Savings.

Summary.

Chapter 3. The Nature Of Energy Costs And Prices.

Energy Price Overview.

Electric Costs And Rates.

Deregulated Electric Markets.

End-Use Costs.

Incentives To Reduce Energy Use.

Financing Energy Efficiency Investments.

Summary.

Chapter 4. Capital Budgeting: Theory and Practice.

NPV and IRR Analysis.

Real Options - When Procrastination Pays.

Capital Budgeting in Practice.

Summary.

Chapter 5. Energy Facility Risk Management Foundations.

Capital Budgeting and Risk Management.

A Brief History Of Financial Risk Analysis (Var).

Applying a Var Approach to Energy Facility Risk Management.

Prognosis.

Summary.

Chapter 6. EBaR Concepts and Results.

Energy Budgets At Risk (Ebar) Overview.

Ebar Management Presentations.

Summary.

Chapter 7. Beginning Empirical EBaR Analysis: Risk and Probability Distributions.

Energy Risk.

Probability Distribution Fundamentals.

Extracting Information From Probability Distributions.

Applying Distributions With Monte Carlo Analysis.

Energybudgetsatrisk.com.

Summary.

Chapter 8. EBaR Implementation - Developing Quantitative Relationships.

EBaR Analysis Steps.

Analysis Complexity.

Budget Variable Identification.

Budget Variable Analysis.

Distribution Development

Summary.

Chapter 9. EBaR Budget Analysis (EBaR_Budget).

Monte Carlo analysis Framework.

Evaluations and Assessment.

Summary.

Chapter 10. EBaR Energy Efficiency Investment (EBaR_IRR).

Solving the Efficiency Investment Problem.

Case Study Efficiency Investment Options.

Representing Investment Analysis Uncertainty.

Case Study Efficiency Investment Analysis Results.

Risk Tolerance And Decision Rules.

Summary.

Chapter 11. Energy Budgets at Risk in Competitive Markets.

Competitive Energy Suppliers.

Pricing/Efficiency Misconceptions in Competitive Markets.

EBaR Simultaneous Pricing and Efficiency Investment Choice.

Summary.

Chapter 12. EBaR Reports.

EBaR Budget and Investment Analysis: Austin Office Building, January 20, 2008.

Executive Summary: Office Building, January 20, 2008.

Additional Report Information.

Appendix A.

Notes.

Index.