Fisher Investments on Materials

Foreword ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xv

Part I Getting Started in Materials 1

Chapter 1 Materials Basics 3

Materials 101 4

Commodity Pricing Basics 9

The Production Process 13

Chapter 2 A Brief History of Materials 29

The Industrial Revolution 29

Structural Shifts in Metals Since the Industrial Revolution 33

Industrialization of the Emerging Markets 37

Chapter 3 Materials Sector Drivers 41

Key Drivers 42

Drivers at Work 46

Case Study: Copper 51

Part II Next Steps: Materials Details 63

Chapter 4 Materials Sector Breakdown 65

Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) 66

Global Materials Benchmarks 67

Metals & Mining Industry 74

Chemicals 88

Construction Materials 96

Paper & Forest Products 96

Containers & Packaging 98

Chapter 5 Staying Current: Tracking Sector Fundamentals 101

What to Watch 102

Chapter 6 Case Study: The 2003 to 2007

Bull Market in Materials 117

The Backdrop 119

Demand Growth 120

Supply Constraints 130

The Growth of Mergers and Acquisitions 136

Part III Thinking Like a Portfolio Manager 139

Chapter 7 The Top-Down Method 141

Investing is a Science 141

The Top-Down Method 144

Top-Down Deconstructed 150

Managing Against a Materials Benchmark 157

Chapter 8 Security Analysis 163

Make Your Selection 164

A Five-Step Process 165

Important Questions to Ask 173

Chapter 9 Materialize Your Portfolio: Investing Strategies 181

Strategy 1: Adding Value at the Industry and Sub-industry Level 182

Strategy 2: Adding Value at the Security Level 189

Strategy 3: Adding Value in a Materials Sector Downturn 190

Strategy 4: Investing in Commodities 191

Appendix A: Materials Sector Resources 195

Appendix B: Top 10 Materials Firms by Industry 199

Notes 203

Glossary 217

About the Authors 223

Index 225