Fisher Investments on Energy

Foreword ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xv

Part 1: Getting Started in Energy 1

Chapter 1: Energy Basics 3

Oil & Gas Industry 4

Energy Equipment & Services Industry 14

Chapter 2: What Makes Energy Burn: Key Drivers of

the Energy Sector 19

Oil Demand Drivers 20

Oil Supply Drivers 30

Natural Gas Demand Drivers 40

Natural Gas Supply Drivers 45

Additional Drivers 52

Part 2: Next Steps: Energy Details 61

Chapter 3: Energy Sector Breakdown 63

Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) 64

Global Energy Benchmarks 65

Oil, Gas, & Consumable Fuels Industry 70

Energy Equipment & Services Industry 82

Sub-Industry Drivers 88

Chapter 4: Why We’ll Never Run Dry 103

The World Will Never Run Out of Oil 104

The Tipping Point? 109

Peak Oil and You 116

Peak Oil Reading 118

Chapter 5: Staying Current: Tracking Industry

Fundamentals 121

Crude Oil Market Fundamentals 121

Natural Gas Market Fundamentals 131

Refining Margin Fundamentals 136

Energy Equipment & Services Fundamentals 144

Chapter 6: Alternative Energy 151

What Is Alternative Energy? 152

Alternative Energy Drivers 167

Alternative Energy Investment Universe 170

Part 3: Thinking Like a Portfolio Manager 175

Chapter 7: The Top-Down Method 177

Investing Is a Science 177

Einstein’s Brain and the Stock Market 178

The Top-Down Method 180

Top-Down Deconstructed 185

Managing Against an Energy Benchmark 193

Chapter 8: Security Analysis 197

Make Your Selection 198

A Five-Step Process 199

Important Questions to Ask 207

Chapter 9: Energize Your Portfolio 217

Strategy 1: Commoditize 218

Strategy 2: Playing Sub-Industries 219

Strategy 3: Company Bets 228

More Sub-Industry Tips 228

Appendix: Energy Sector Resources 233

Notes 236

Glossary 243

About the Authors 249

Index 250