Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability

Editor Biographies x

List of Contributors xi

Foreword xvii

Acknowledgments xix

Abbreviations and Acronyms xxii

1 Introduction 1
Philip L. Woodworth, John A. Church, Thorkild Aarup, and W. Stanley Wilson

References 15

2 Impacts of and Responses to Sea-Level Rise 17
Robert J. Nicholls

2.1 Introduction 17

2.2 Climate Change and Global/Relative Sea-Level Rise 18

2.3 Sea-Level Rise and Resulting Impacts 22

2.4 Framework and Methods for the Analysis of Sea-Level-Rise Impacts 25

2.5 Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise 27

2.6 Future Impacts of Sea-Level Rise 30

2.7 Responding to Sea-Level Rise 37

2.8 Next Steps 40

2.9 Concluding Remarks 41

Acknowledgments 43

References 43

3 A First-Order Assessment of the Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels on Offshore Structures and Coastal Refineries 52
Ralph Rayner and Bev MacKenzie

3.1 Introduction 52

3.2 Design Considerations 54

3.3 Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels 55

3.4 Evaluating the Economic Impact 57

3.5 Conclusions 58

References 59

4 Paleoenvironmental Records, Geophysical Modeling, and Reconstruction of Sea-Level Trends and Variability on Centennial and Longer Timescales 61
Kurt Lambeck, Colin D. Woodroffe, Fabrizio Antonioli, Marco Anzidei, W. Roland Gehrels, Jacques Laborel, and Alex J. Wright

4.1 Introduction 61

4.2 Past Sea-Level Changes 62

4.3 Sea-Level Indicators 73

4.4 Geophysical Modeling of Variability in Relative Sea-Level History 84

4.5 Regional Case Studies 88

4.6 Discussion and Conclusions 95

Acknowledgments 105

References 105

5 Modern Sea-Level-Change Estimates 122
Gary T. Mitchum, R. Steven Nerem, Mark A. Merrifield, and W. Roland Gehrels

5.1 Introduction 122

5.2 Estimates from Proxy Sea-Level Records 123

5.3 Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Tide Gauges 126

5.4 Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Satellite Altimetry 133

5.5 Recommendations 137

Acknowledgments 138

References 138

6 Ocean Temperature and Salinity Contributions to Global and Regional Sea-Level Change 143
John A. Church, Dean Roemmich, Catia M. Domingues, Josh K. Willis, Neil J. White, John E. Gilson, Detlef Stammer, Armin Köhl, Don P. Chambers, Felix W. Landerer, Jochem Marotzke, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tatsuo Suzuki, Anny Cazenave, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon

6.1 Introduction 143

6.2 Direct Estimates of Steric Sea-Level Rise 145

6.3 Estimating Steric Sea-Level Change Using Ocean Syntheses 152

6.4 Inferring Steric Sea Level from Time-Variable Gravity and Sea Level 154

6.5 Modeling Steric Sea-Level Rise 156

6.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 166

Acknowledgments 168

References 168

7 Cryospheric Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability 177
Konrad Steffen, Robert H. Thomas, Eric Rignot, J. Graham Cogley, Mark B. Dyurgerov, Sarah C.B. Raper, Philippe Huybrechts, and Edward Hanna

7.1 Introduction 177

7.2 Mass-Balance Techniques 178

7.3 Ice-Sheet Mass Balance 180

7.4 Mass Balance of Glaciers and Ice Caps 192

7.5 Glacier, Ice-Cap, and Ice-Sheet Modeling 200

7.6 Summary and Recommendations 210

References 214

8 Terrestrial Water-Storage Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability 226
P.C.D. (Chris) Milly, Anny Cazenave, James S. Famiglietti, Vivien Gornitz, Katia Laval, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Dork L. Sahagian, John M. Wahr, and Clark R. Wilson

8.1 Introduction 226

8.2 Analysis Tools 229

8.3 Climate-Driven Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage 236

8.4 Direct Anthropogenic Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage 241

8.5 Synthesis 246

8.6 Recommendations 248

References 249

9 Geodetic Observations and Global Reference Frame Contributions to Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability 256
Geoff Blewitt, Zuheir Altamimi, James Davis, Richard Gross, Chung-Yen Kuo, Frank G. Lemoine, Angelyn W. Moore, Ruth E. Neilan, Hans-Peter Plag, Markus Rothacher, C.K. Shum, Michael G. Sideris, Tilo Schöne, Paul Tregoning, and Susanna Zerbini

9.1 Introduction 256

9.2 Global and Regional Reference Systems 263

9.3 Linking GPS to Tide Gauges and Tide-Gauge Benchmarks 274

9.4 Recommendations for Geodetic Observations 279

Acknowledgments 281

References 281

10 Surface Mass Loading on a Dynamic Earth: Complexity and Contamination in the Geodetic Analysis of Global Sea-Level Trends 285
Jerry X. Mitrovica, Mark E. Tamisiea, Erik R. Ivins, L.L.A. (Bert) Vermeersen, Glenn A. Milne, and Kurt Lambeck

10.1 Introduction 285

10.2 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment 290

10.3 Sea Level, Sea Surface, and the Geoid 300

10.4 Rapid Melting and Sea-Level Fingerprints 302

10.5 Great Earthquakes 308

10.6 Final Remarks 311

Acknowledgments 313

References 313

11 Past and Future Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves 326
Jason A. Lowe, Philip L. Woodworth, Tom Knutson, Ruth E. McDonald, Kathleen L. McInnes, Katja Woth,
Hans von Storch, Judith Wolf, Val Swail, Natacha B. Bernier, Sergey Gulev, Kevin J. Horsburgh, Alakkat S. Unnikrishnan, John R. Hunter, and Ralf Weisse

11.1 Introduction 326

11.2 Evidence for Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves in the Recent Past 327

11.3 Mid-Latitude and Tropical Storms: Changes in the Atmospheric Drivers of Extreme Sea Level 337

11.4 Future Extreme Water Levels 346

11.5 Future Research Needs 357

11.6 Conclusions 361

Acknowledgments 361

References 361

12 Observing Systems Needed to Address Sea-Level Rise and Variability 376
W. Stanley Wilson, Waleed Abdalati, Douglas Alsdorf, Jérôme Benveniste, Hans Bonekamp, J. Graham Cogley, Mark R. Drinkwater, Lee-Lueng Fu, Richard Gross, Bruce J. Haines, D.E. Harrison, Gregory C. Johnson, Michael Johnson, John L. LaBrecque, Eric J. Lindstrom, Mark A. Merrifi eld, Laury Miller, Erricos C. Pavlis, Stephen Piotrowicz, Dean Roemmich, Detlef Stammer, Robert H. Thomas, Eric Thouvenot, and Philip L. Woodworth

12.1 Introduction 376

12.2 Sustained, Systematic Observing Systems (Existing Capabilities) 377

12.3 Development of Improved Observing Systems (New Capabilities) 390

12.4 Summary 398

References 400

13 Sea-Level Rise and Variability: Synthesis and Outlook for the Future 402
John A. Church, Thorkild Aarup, Philip L. Woodworth, W. Stanley Wilson, Robert J. Nicholls, Ralph Rayner, Kurt Lambeck, Gary T. Mitchum, Konrad Steffen, Anny Cazenave, Geoff Blewitt, Jerry X. Mitrovica, and Jason A. Lowe

13.1 Historical Sea-Level Change 403

13.2 Why is Sea Level Rising? 405

13.3 The Regional Distribution of Sea-Level Rise 408

13.4 Projections of Sea-Level Rise for the 21st Century and Beyond 409

13.5 Changes in Extreme Events 412

13.6 Sea Level and Society 412

References 416

Index 421