Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty: An Introduction to the Analysis of Decision Making

Some Fundamental Concepts.

Elementary Probability Theory.

Random Variables and Probability Distributions.

Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Decision Theory and Inference.

Some Elementary Bayesian Concepts.

Construction of Decision Diagrams.

Information and Revision of Probabilities.

Probability Assessment.

The Theory and Application of Utility.

Sensitivity Analysis.

Decision Making and the Normal Distribution.

Multicriteria Decisions.

Cases.

Appendices.

Answers to Selected Exercises.

Bibliography.

Index.