Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

Illustrations ix

Preface xiii

Acknowledgments xxi

PART ONE FROM BEDOUIN TO BOURGEOISIE 1

1 The Birth of a Nation 5

2 The History of Major Saudi Arabian Oil Discoveries 23

3 Saudi Arabia's Road to Oil Market Dominance 43

4 The Veil of Secrecy over Saudi Oil Reserves and Production 69

PART TWO THE EBBING OF THE SAUDI OIL BOUNTY 99

5 Saudi Aramco 101

6 Oil Is Not Just Another Commodity 129

PART THREE GIANTS AT THE TIPPING POINT 149

7 Ghawar, the King of Oilfields 151

8 The Second-Tier Oilfields 181

9 The Best of the Rest 199

10 Coming Up Empty in New Exploration 231

11 Turning to Natural Gas 245

PART FOUR TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT 261

12 Saudi Oil Reserves Claims in Doubt 265

13 Facing the Inevitable 281

14 Reading Between the Lines of the Latest News from Aramco 309

15 Aramco Invokes "Fuzzy Logic" to Manage the Future of Saudi Oil 325

16 In Search of Crisper Truths among the Confident Saudi Claims 333

17 Aftermath 341

Appendix A Methodology 355

Appendix B Supporting Technical Data 365

Appendix C The 1974 and 1979 Senate Hearings 377

Notes 385

Bibliography 391

Index 409