Market Consistency: Model Calibration in Imperfect Markets

Acknowledgements.

Abbreviations.

Notation.

1 Introduction.

1.1 Market consistency.

1.2 The primacy of the ‘market.

1.3 Calibrating to the ‘market’.

1.4 Structure of the book.

1.5 Terminology.

2 When is and when isn’t Market Consistency Appropriate?

2.1 Introduction.

2.2 Drawing lessons from the characteristics of money itself.

2.3 Regulatory drivers favouring market consistent valuations.

2.4 Underlying theoretical attractions of market consistent valuations.

2.5 Reasons why some people reject market consistency.

2.6 Market making versus position-taking.

2.7 Contracts that include discretionary elements.

2.8 Valuation and regulation.

2.9 Marking-to-market versus marking-to-model.

2.10 Rational behaviour?

3 Different Meanings given to ‘Market Consistent Valuations’.

3.1 Introduction.

3.2 The underlying purpose of a valuation.

3.3 The importance of the ‘marginal’ trade.

3.4 Different definitions used by different standards setters.

3.5 Interpretations used by other commentators.

4 Derivative Pricing Theory.

4.1 Introduction.

4.2 The principle of no arbitrage.

4.3 Lattices, martingales and Îto calculus.

4.4 Calibration of pricing algorithms.

4.5 Jumps, stochastic volatility and market frictions.

4.6 Equity, commodity and currency derivatives.

4.7 Interest rate derivatives.

4.8 Credit derivatives.

4.9 Volatility derivatives.

4.10 Hybrid instruments.

4.11 Monte Carlo techniques.

4.12 Weighted Monte Carlo and analytical analogues.

4.13 Further comments on calibration.

5 The Risk-free Rate.

5.1 Introduction.

5.2 What do we mean by ‘risk-free’?

5.3 Choosing between possible meanings of ‘risk-free’.

6 Liquidity Theory.

6.1 Introduction.

6.2 Market experience.

6.3 Lessons to draw from market experience.

6.4 General principles.

6.5 Exactly what is liquidity?

6.6 Liquidity of pooled funds.

6.7 Losing control.

7 Risk Measurement Theory.

7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Instrument-specific risk measures.

7.3 Portfolio risk measures.

7.4 Time series-based risk models.

7.5 Inherent data limitations applicable to time series-based risk models.

7.6 Credit risk modelling.

7.7 Risk attribution.

7.8 Stress testing.

8 Capital Adequacy.

8.1 Introduction.

8.2 Financial stability.

8.3 Banking.

8.4 Insurance.

8.5 Pension funds.

8.6 Different types of capital.

9 Calibrating Risk Statistics to Perceived ‘Real World’ Distributions.

9.1 Introduction.

9.2 Referring to market values.

9.3 Backtesting.

9.4 Fitting observed distributional forms.

9.5 Fat-tailed behaviour in individual return series.

9.6 Fat-tailed behaviour in multiple return series.

10 Calibrating Risk Statistics to ‘Market Implied’ Distributions.

10.1 Introduction.

10.2 Market implied risk modelling.

10.3 Fully market consistent risk measurement in practice.

11 Avoiding Undue Pro-cyclicality in Regulatory Frameworks.

11.1 Introduction.

11.2 The 2007-09 credit crisis.

11.3 Underwriting of failures.

11.4 Possible pro-cyclicality in regulatory frameworks.

11.5 Re-expressing capital adequacy in a market consistent framework.

11.6 Discount rates.

11.7 Pro-cyclicality in Solvency II.

11.8 Incentive arrangements. 

11.9 Systemic impacts of pension fund valuations.

11.10 Sovereign default risk.

12 Portfolio Construction.

12.1 Introduction.

12.2 Risk-return optimisation.

12.3 Other portfolio construction styles.

12.4 Risk budgeting.

12.5 Reverse optimisation and implied view analysis.

12.6 Calibrating portfolio construction techniques to the market.

12.7 Catering better for non-normality in return distributions.

12.8 Robust optimisation.

12.9 Taking due account other investors’ risk preferences.

13 Calibrating Valuations to the Market.

13.1 Introduction.

13.2 Price formation and price discovery.

13.3 Market consistent asset valuations.

13.4 Market consistent liability valuations.

13.5 Market consistent embedded values.

13.6 Solvency add-ons.

13.7 Defined benefit pension liabilities.

13.8 Unit pricing.

14 The Final Word. 

14.1 Conclusions.

14.2 Market consistent principles. 

Bibliography.

Index.