Probabilistic Transmission System Planning

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Overview of Transmission Planning 1

1.2 Necessity of Probabilistic Transmission Planning 6

1.3 Outline of the Book 8

2 BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILISTIC PLANNING 11

2.1 Introduction 11

2.2 Probabilistic Planning Criteria 12

2.3 Procedure of Probabilistic Planning 14

2.4 Other Aspects in Probabilistic Planning 17

2.5 Conclusions 18

3 LOAD MODELING 21

3.1 Introduction 21

3.2 Load Forecast 22

3.3 Load Clustering 37

3.4 Uncertainty and Correlation of Bus Loads 42

3.5 Voltage- and Frequency-Dependent Bus Loads 44

3.6 Conclusions 46

4 SYSTEM ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 49

4.1 Introduction 49

4.2 Power Flow 50

4.3 Probabilistic Power Flow 53

4.4 Optimal Power Flow (OPF) 57

4.5 Probabilistic Search Optimization Algorithms 64

4.6 Contingency Analysis and Ranking 72

4.7 Voltage Stability Evaluation 76

4.8 Transient Stability Solution 80

4.9 Conclusions 83

5 PROBABILISTIC RELIABILITY EVALUATION 85

5.1 Introduction 85

5.2 Reliability Indices 86

5.3 Reliability Worth Assessment 90

5.4 Substation Adequacy Evaluation 93

5.5 Composite System Adequacy Evaluation 99

5.6 Probabilistic Voltage Stability Assessment 107

5.7 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment 114

5.8 Conclusions 120

6 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS METHODS 123

6.1 Introduction 123

6.2 Cost Components of Projects 124

6.3 Time Value of Money and Present Value Method 125

6.4 Depreciation 131

6.5 Economic Assessment of Investment Projects 137

6.6 Economic Assessment of Equipment Replacement 142

6.7 Uncertainty Analysis in Economic Assessment 144

6.8 Conclusions 147

7 DATA IN PROBABILISTIC TRANSMISSION PLANNING 149

7.1 Introduction 149

7.2 Data for Power System Analysis 150

7.3 Reliability Data in Probabilistic Planning 163

7.4 Other Data 176

7.5 Conclusions 178

8 FUZZY TECHNIQUES FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY 181

8.1 Introduction 181

8.2 Fuzzy Models of System Component Outages 182

8.3 Mixed Fuzzy and Probabilistic Models for Loads 190

8.4 Combined Probabilistic and Fuzzy Techniques 192

8.5 Example 1: Case Study Not Considering Weather Effects 196

8.6 Example 2: Case Study Considering Weather Effects 202

8.7 Conclusions 212

9 NETWORK REINFORCEMENT PLANNING 215

9.1 Introduction 215

9.2 Probabilistic Planning of Bulk Power Supply System 216

9.3 Probabilistic Planning of Transmission Loop Network 225

9.4 Conclusions 234

10 RETIREMENT PLANNING OF NETWORK COMPONENTS 237

10.1 Introduction 237

10.2 Retirement Timing of an Aged AC Cable 238

10.3 Replacement Strategy of an HVDC Cable 247

10.4 Conclusions 257

11 SUBSTATION PLANNING 259

11.1 Introduction 259

11.2 Probabilistic Planning of Substation Confi guration 260

11.3 Transformer Spare Planning 272

11.4 Conclusions 280

12 SINGLE-CIRCUIT SUPPLY SYSTEM PLANNING 283

12.1 Introduction 283

12.2 Reliability Performance of Single-Circuit Supply Systems 285

12.3 Planning Method of Single-Circuit Supply Systems 288

12.4 Application to Actual Utility System 298

12.5 Conclusions 307

APPENDIX A ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY AND STATISTICS 309

A.1 Probability Operation Rules 309

A.2 Four Important Probability Distributions 310

A.3 Measures of Probability Distribution 313

A.4 Parameter Estimation 314

A.5 Monte Carlo Simulation 316

APPENDIX B ELEMENTS OF FUZZY MATHEMATICS 321

B.1 Fuzzy Sets 321

B.2 Fuzzy Numbers 323

B.3 Two Typical Fuzzy Numbers in Engineering Applications 325

B.4 Fuzzy Relations 326

APPENDIX C ELEMENTS OF RELIABILITY EVALUATION 329

C.1 Basic Concepts 329

C.2 Crisp Reliability Evaluation 331

C.3 Fuzzy Reliability Evaluation 335

References 341

Index 349