Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities

Part I: Theory and methods.

1 What is a risk analysis?

1.1 Why risk analysis?.

1.2 Risk management.

1.2.1 Decision-making under uncertainty.

1.3 Examples: decision situations.

1.3.1 Risk analysis for a tunnel.

1.3.2 Risk analysis for an offshore installation.

1.3.3 Risk analysis related to a cash depot.

2 What is risk?

2.1 Vulnerability.

2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively.

2.2.1 Description of risk in a financial context.

2.2.2 Description of risk in a safety context.

3 The risk analysis process: planning.

3.1 Problem definition.

3.2 Selection of analysis method.

3.2.1 Checklist-based approach.

3.2.2 Risk-based approach.

4 The risk analysis process: risk assessment.

4.1 Identification of initiating events.

4.2 Cause analysis.

4.3 Consequence analysis.

4.4 Probabilities and uncertainties.

4.5 Risk picture: Risk presentation.

4.5.1 Sensitivity and robustness analyses.

4.5.2 Risk evaluation.

5 The risk analysis process: risk treatment.

5.1 Comparisons of alternatives.

5.1.1 How to assess measures?

5.2 Management review and judgement.

6 Risk analysis methods.

6.1 Coarse risk analysis.

6.2 Job safety analysis.

6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis.

6.3.1 Strengths and weaknesses of an FMEA.

6.4 Hazard and operability studies.

6.5 SWIFT.

6.6 Fault tree analysis.

6.6.1 Qualitative analysis.

6.6.2 Quantitative analysis.

6.7 Event tree analysis.

6.7.1 Barrier block diagrams.

6.8 Bayesian networks.

6.9 Monte Carlo simulation.

Part II Examples of applications.

7 Safety measures for a road tunnel.

7.1 Planning.

7.1.1 Problem definition.

7.1.2 Selection of analysis method.

7.2 Risk assessment.

7.2.1 Identification of initiating events.

7.2.2 Cause analysis.

7.2.3 Consequence analysis.

7.2.4 Risk picture.

7.3 Risk treatment.

7.3.1 Comparison of alternatives.

7.3.2 Management review and decision.

8 Risk analysis process for an offshore installation.

8.1 Planning.

8.1.1 Problem definition.

8.1.2 Selection of analysis method.

8.2 Risk analysis.

8.2.1 Hazard identification.

8.2.2 Cause analysis.

8.2.3 Consequence analysis.

8.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives.

8.4 Management review and judgement.

9 Production assurance.

9.1 Planning.

9.2 Risk analysis.

9.2.1 Identification of failures.

9.2.2 Cause analysis.

9.2.3 Consequence analysis.

9.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives.

9.4 Management review and judgement. Decision.

10 Risk analysis process for a cash depot.

10.1 Planning.

10.1.1 Problem definition.

10.1.2 Selection of analysis method.

10.2 Risk analysis.

10.2.1 Identification of hazards and threats.

10.2.2 Cause analysis.

10.2.3 Consequence analysis.

10.3 Risk picture.

10.4 Risk-reducing measures.

10.4.1 Relocation of the NOKAS facility.

10.4.2 Erection of a wall.

10.5 Management review and judgment. Decision.

10.6 Discussion.

11 Risk analysis process for municipalities.

11.1 Planning .

11.1.1 Problem definition.

11.1.2 Selection of analysis method.

11.2 Risk assessment.

11.2.1 Hazard and threat identification.

11.2.2 Cause and consequence analysis. Risk picture.

11.3 Risk treatment.

12 Risk analysis process for the entire enterprise.

12.1 Planning.

12.1.1 Problem definition.

12.1.2 Selection of analysis method.

12.2 Risk analysis.

12.2.1 Price risk.

12.2.2 Operational risk.

12.2.3 Health, Environment and Safety (HES).

12.2.4 Reputation risk.

12.3 Overall risk picture.

12.4 Risk treatment.

13 Discussion.

13.1 Risk analysis as a decision support tool.

13.2 Risk is more than the calculated probabilities and expected values.

13.3 Risk analysis has both strengths and weaknesses.

13.3.1 Precision of a risk analysis: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

13.3.2 Terminology.

13.3.3 Risk acceptance criteria (tolerability limits).

13.4 Reflection on approaches, methods and results.

13.5 Limitations of the causal chain approach.

13.6 Risk perspectives.

13.7 Scientific basis.

13.8 The implications of the limitations of risk assessment.

13.9 Critical systems and activities.

13.10 Conclusions.

A Probability calculus and statistics.

A.1 The meaning of a probability.

A.2 Probability calculus.

A.3 Probability distributions: expected value.

A.3.1 Binomial distribution.

A.4 Statistics (Bayesian statistics).

B Introduction to reliability analysis.

B.1 Reliability of systems composed of components.

B.2 Production system.

B.3 Safety system.

C Approach for selecting risk analysis methods.

C.1 Expected consequences.

C.2 Uncertainty factors.

C.3 Frame conditions.

C.4 Selection of a specific method.

D Terminology.

D.1 Risk management: relationships between key terms.

Bibliography.

Index.