Active Private Equity Real Estate Strategy

Preface ix

Disclaimer xiii

Acknowledgments xv

About the Authors xvii

PART ONE Market Analysis and Forecasts 1

CHAPTER 1 Overview of the U.S. Real Estate Market 3
Tim Wang and David Lynn

CHAPTER 2 Forecasting the U.S. Market 19
David Lynn

CHAPTER 3 Recession Simulation and Its Effects on Real Estate 25
Tim Wang, Alison Sauer, and David Lynn

CHAPTER 4 Subprime Fallout: The Impact on Commercial Real Estate 41
Tim Wang and David Lynn

CHAPTER 5 Capital Markets: Dramatic Shifts and Opportunities 47
David Lynn and Tim Wang

CHAPTER 6 The Bid-Ask Problem and Game Theory 53
Jeff Organisciak, Tim Wang, and David Lynn

PART TWO Active Strategies 67

CHAPTER 7 Residential Land Investment 69
Bohdy Hedgcock and David Lynn

CHAPTER 8 The U.S. Hotel Market and Strategy 103
Tim Wang, Matson Holbrook, and David Lynn

CHAPTER 9 Global Gateway Industrial Market Investment 125
Bohdy Hedgcock and David Lynn

CHAPTER 10 The Opportunity in Senior Housing 159
Tim Wang and David Lynn

CHAPTER 11 Active Portfolio Management Using Modern Portfolio Theory 187
David Lynn and Yusheng Hao

CHAPTER 12 Derivatives in Private Equity Real Estate 217
Jeff Organisciak, Tim Wang, and David Lynn

CHAPTER 13 Opportunities in Infrastructure Investment 239
David Lynn and Matson Holbrook

APPENDIX A Typical Land Development Pro Forma Analysis—Three Scenarios 247

APPENDIX B U.S. Hotel Chain Scales 253

APPENDIX C Modern Portfolio Theory in Real Estate Portfolio Analytics 257

APPENDIX D Commercial Real Estate Indexes 259

APPENDIX E Example NPI Forecast Methodology 263

Selected Bibliography 265

Index 267