Elections and Exit Polling

Acknowledgments.

Contributors.

1. Introduction (Fritz Scheuren and Wendy Alvey).

1.1. Introduction.

1.2. Definitions.

1.3. Brief History.

1.4. A Day in the Life of An Exit Poll.

1.5. Theory and Methodology.

1.6. Recent electoral Applications.

1.7. Some Major Limitations.

1.8. Recommendations and a Few Predictions.

1.9. References.

2. The Infamous 2000 Election.

2.1. Introduction.

2.2. Analysis: Looking Back.

2.3. Data Quality.

2.4. Summary Observations.

3. 2004: Fraudulent Election?

3.1. Introduction.

3.2. The Great Election Debate.

3.3. Confidentiality-Another Side of the Controversy.

3.4. Further Research.

3.5. Summary Observations.

4. Mid-Term Elections: 2006.

4.1. Introduction.

4.2. Pre-Election Polls.

4.3. Referenda on the Ballot.

4.4. Summary Observations.

5. Globe-Trotting Consultant.

5.1. Introduction.

5.2. A Historical Look at Exit Polls From a Mexican Perspective.

5.3. Muslim Opinions on Political Reform.

5.4. A Mexican Case Study.

5.5. Pre-Election Polling in Nagano, Japan.

5.6. Swedish Public Opinion Polls.

5.7. Election Polling In Canada.

5.8. Summary Observations.

6. Looking Ahead: Recommendations for 2008 and Beyond.

6.1. Introduction.

6.2. Recommendations for the Future.

6.3. Some Recent Research.

6.4. Guidelines for Quality Polling.

6.5. Next Steps.

6.6. Summary Observations.

7. Technical Appendix.

7.1. Introduction.

7.2. Statistical Methods for Papers in This Volume.

7.3. Appendix: Survey Questions.

7.4. Additional Methodological Papers.

7.5. Summary Observations.

Author Index.

Index.