Wireless Communications: The Future

Preface xv

Acknowledgements xvii

About the Author xix

1 Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business 1

2 Previous Predictions have been Accurate 3

2.1 Introduction 3

2.2 There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate 3

2.3 What we Predicted for the Period 2000–2005 6

2.4 How Well did we do? 7

2.5 Our Predictions for 2005–2010 8

2.6 How Good do these Predictions Look Now? 9

2.7 Implications for Forecasting the Future 9

3 How to put Together a Forecast 11

4 The Current Position 13

4.1 The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position 13

4.2 Mobile Communications 14

4.2.1 Cellular 14

Introduction to Cellular [1–3] 14

2G Cellular 15

3G Cellular 17

WiMax for Mobile Applications 18

‘4G’ Cellular 19

Convergent Technologies 21

Summary for Cellular 22

4.2.2 Private Mobile Radio 22

Introduction 22

Analogue Communications 23

Digital Communications 23

4.2.3 Mobile Mesh Systems 24

4.2.4 Cognitive Radio 25

4.3 Fixed wireless 27

4.3.1 Introduction 27

4.3.2 Key Drivers for Fixed Wireless 27

4.3.3 Key Competitors to Fixed Wireless 28

4.3.4 Likely Success of Fixed Wireless 28

4.3.5 Enlarging the Market with a Nomadic Offering 29

4.3.6 The Prognosis for Fixed Wireless 29

4.4 Short-range Devices 30

4.4.1 Introduction 30

4.4.2 Overview of the Standards for Short-range Devices 31

4.4.3 Ultra Wideband (UWB) 32

4.4.4 Wireless LANs [5] 33

4.4.5 BlueTooth [6] 34

4.4.6 DECT 35

4.4.7 Zigbee 35

4.4.8 RFIDs 36

4.4.9 The Prognosis for Short-range Devices 36

4.5 Core Networks 37

4.6 Broadcasting 39

4.6.1 Conventional Broadcasting 39

4.6.2 Mobile Broadcasting 41

4.7 Industry Structure 42

4.8 Summary 42

4.9 Appendix: The Role for OFDM 43

OFDM is Increasingly in Favour 43

A Quick Introduction to OFDM 43

Multipath: the Key Difference between OFDM and SCM 44

Equalisers may become too Complex to be Realisable 45

Problems Specific to OFDM 45

Specific Applications 45

So is OFDM the New ‘Technology of Choice’? 48

References 48

5 End User Demand 49

5.1 Why What the User Wants is Critical 49

5.2 How People React to New Concepts 49

5.3 Changing Patterns of Spending 51

5.4 What they have Today 53

5.5 What they want Now 53

5.6 Security, Privacy and Health Concerns 55

5.7 The Handset Subsidy Problem 56

5.8 In Summary 57

6 Technology Progress 59

6.1 Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast 59

6.2 Key Technical Fundamentals: The ‘True’ Laws 60

6.3 Key Technical Observations: The ‘Empirical’ Laws 62

6.3.1 Moore’s Law 62

6.3.2 Metcalfe’s Law 63

6.3.3 Gilder’s Law 64

6.3.4 Cooper’s Law 65

6.3.5 Edholm’s Law 67

6.3.6 Growth in Disk Size 68

6.3.7 Goodhart’s Law 70

6.3.8 Laws or Trends? 70

6.4 Technologies on the ‘Radar Screen’ 70

6.4.1 Technologies Enhancing the Efficiency of Transmission 71

Software-defined Radio 71

Smart Antennas 71

Wireless Mesh Networking 72

Interference Cancellation 73

Cognitive Radio 74

6.4.2 Technologies Lowering Cost: Backhaul 74

6.4.3 Technologies Enhancing Interaction with Terminals 76

6.4.4 Technologies Leading to ‘Artificial Intelligence’ 84

6.4.5 Compression Technologies 85

6.5 Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthroughs 85

6.6 Implications for the Future 85

References 86

7 Major World Events 87

7.1 Introduction 87

7.2 World Events 87

7.3 Events in Related Industries 89

7.4 Summary 90

7.5 The Next Chapters 90

8 Future Military Wireless Solutions 91
Paul S. Cannon and Clive R. Harding

8.1 Introduction 91

8.2 Operational Context 92

8.3 Technical Features Important to Secure and Robust Global Military Communications 93

8.4 New Platforms and Missions: Their Impact on Military Communication Systems 94

8.4.1 Impact of Unmanned Vehicles 94

8.4.2 Impact of High-Altitude Platforms (HAPs) 95

8.4.3 Impact of Future Infantry Soldier Technology 96

8.4.4 Impact of Wireless Sensor Networks 96

8.5 Developments in Military Communications Systems 97

8.5.1 Introduction 97

8.5.2 Very Low-Frequency (VLF) Communications 97

8.5.3 High-Frequency (HF) Communications 98

8.5.4 Terrestrial VHF, UHF and SHF Tactical Communications 99

8.5.5 Satellite Communications 100

8.6 Emerging Communications Techniques 103

8.6.1 Introduction 103

8.6.2 Ad-hoc Networks 103

8.6.3 Disruption-Tolerant Networks (DTN) 103

8.6.4 Software-Defined Radio (SDR) 104

8.6.5 Environmental Modelling for Communications Management 106

8.6.6 Spectrum Management and Utilisation 107

8.6.7 Smart Antennas for Military Communications 109

8.6.8 The Push to Higher RF Frequencies and Laser Communications 109

8.6.9 Ultra Wideband (UWB) Techniques 110

8.6.10 Communications Security 110

8.7 Some Emerging Technologies with Communications Relevance 111

8.7.1 Introduction 111

8.7.2 Beyond Silicon Technologies 111

8.7.3 Potential of Nanotechnology 111

8.7.4 Quantum Cryptography and Quantum Computing 112

8.7.5 Negative Refractive Materials and Their Applications 113

8.7.6 Low-power High-stability Reference Sources 113

8.7.7 Power Sources 113

8.8 The Role for Commercial Off-the-shelf for Military Communications 114

8.9 Summary and Conclusions 114

Acknowledgements 115

References 115

Biographies 115

9 From the Few to the Many: Macro to Micro 117
Peter Cochrane

9.1 In the Beginning 117

9.2 The Need for Planning, Regulation and Control 118

9.3 Some General Trends 120

9.4 What do People Want and Need? 122

9.5 What can People Expect /Have? 123

9.6 Likely Technology Developments 124

9.6.1 Home and Office 124

9.6.2 Manufacturing, Retail and Logistics 126

9.6.3 Logistics of Things and People 126

9.6.4 Parasitic Networks 127

9.6.5 Mobile Sensor Networks 128

9.7 Clusters of People and Things 128

9.8 Finally 129

Biography 131

10 The Role of Ad-hoc Technology in the Broadband Wireless Networks of the Future 133
Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi

10.1 Introduction 133

10.2 The Need for Flexible Wireless Broadband Solutions 134

10.3 Current and Emerging Models of Peer-to-Peer Broadband Connectivity 136

10.3.1 Wireless Home Networks 136

10.3.2 Military Applications 137

10.3.3 Public Safety 137

10.3.4 Private and Public Transportation 138

10.3.5 Metro-area Broadband Networks 139

10.3.6 Mining and Manufacturing 139

10.3.7 Corporate Networks 139

10.3.8 Sensor Networks and Things-to-Things Communication 140

10.4 Enabling the Next Generation of Ad-hoc Connectivity 140

10.5 Types of Ad-hoc Network 142

10.5.1 Autonomous Peer-to-Peer Networks 142

10.5.2 Hybrid Mesh Networks 143

10.6 Integrated Ad-hoc and Wide Area Networks 144

10.6.1 Linking of Ad-hoc Workgroups 144

10.6.2 Extension of carrier broadband networks 144

10.6.3 Enhanced Network Performance 144

10.7 Enabling Technologies 145

10.7.1 Self-configuration and Self-organisation 145

10.7.2 Multi-hopping and Dynamic Routing of Data Packets 145

10.7.3 Smart Sensors and Devices 146

10.7.4 Location-awareness 146

10.7.5 Low-power and Energy-scavenging Technologies 146

10.7.6 End User Control over Preferences and Privacy 147

10.8 New Business and Usage Models 147

10.9 Benefits of Ad-hoc Technology Wireless Carriers and Internet Providers 150

10.9.1 Incumbent Wireless Carriers 150

10.9.2 Cable Broadband Operators 150

10.9.3 ‘Mom and Pop’ Wisps 151

10.9.4 Greenfield Operators 151

10.9.5 Marketers 151

10.10 A Decentralised Future and Boundless Opportunities 152

Reference 152

Biographies 153

11 Interference and Our Wireless Future 155
Dennis A. Roberson

11.1 Introduction 155

11.2 History 156

11.3 Spectrum Scarcity 157

11.4 Regulatory Directions Toward Scarcity Amelioration 157

11.5 Scarcity Amelioration Approaches 162

11.6 Emerging Wireless Communications Devices and Systems 162

References 165

Biography 166

12 Three Ages of Future Wireless Communications 167
Simon Saunders

12.1 Introduction 167

12.2 The Age of Wireless Proliferation: 2007 to 2011 169

12.2.1 Introduction 169

12.2.2 Services and Applications 170

12.2.3 Devices 172

12.2.4 Infrastructure 173

12.2.5 Air Interfaces 173

12.2.6 Spectrum 174

12.3 The Age of Wireless Similarity: 2012 to 2016 175

12.3.1 Introduction 175

12.3.2 Services and Applications 175

12.3.3 Devices 176

12.3.4 Infrastructure 176

12.3.5 Air Interfaces 177

12.3.6 Spectrum 178

12.4 The Age of Wireless Mundanity: 2017 to 2026 179

12.4.1 Introduction 179

12.4.2 Services and Applications 179

12.4.3 Devices 180

12.4.4 Infrastructure 180

12.4.5 Air Interfaces 181

12.4.6 Spectrum 181

12.5 Conclusions and Summary 182

Reference 183

Biography 184

13 Mobile Cellular Radio Technology Disruption 185
Stephen Temple CBE

13.1 Extrapolating from the Past 25 Years of Public Mobile Radio 185

13.2 The Law of Large Network Momentum 187

13.3 Third-generation W-CDMA Future 188

13.4 Fourth-generation Technology 190

13.5 Where does this Leave the Switch-off of GSM? 192

13.6 The 3G Cellular Radio Network Landscape Ten Years from now 194

13.7 Convergence as a Disruptive Force 195

13.7.1 Convergence: Mobile and Broadcasting 195

13.7.2 Convergence: Internet and Telephone Services 197

13.7.3 Convergence and the ‘Battle for the Home’ 198

Broadband Heavy-user Homes 200

Broadband Light-user Homes 202

Homes with no DSL Connection 203

13.7.4 Convergence and the Evolution of Mobile Handsets 203

13.7.5 Summary Impact of Convergence as a Disruptive Force 204

13.8 The Blindside Forces of Disruption 205

13.8.1 Governments 205

13.8.2 Regulatory Loose Cannons 206

13.8.3 Disruptive Competitors 207

13.8.4 Disruptive Suppliers 207

13.8.5 Gyrating Financial Markets 208

13.8.6 Unpredictable Customers 208

13.8.7 Disruptive Technologies 209

13.8.8 The Global Perspective 209

13.8.9 Summary Vision of the ‘Blindside’ Forces 210

13.9 Conclusions 210

Biography 211

14 Assimilating the Key Factors 213

14.1 Introduction 213

14.2 Summary of the Current Position 213

14.3 Summary of End User Demand 214

14.4 Summary from Technology Advances Section 214

14.5 Summary from the Contributors 215

Paul Cannon 215

Peter Cochrane 216

Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi 216

Dennis Roberson 216

Simon Saunders 217

Stephen Temple 217

14.6 Key Factors brought out by the Contributors 218

14.6.1 Areas not Included in Previous Discussion 218

Connectivity 218

Backhaul 219

Applications 219

Technology 219

Regulation 219

14.6.2 Areas of Disagreement 219

14.7 Reaching a Verdict on the Areas of Disagreement 220

14.8 Drawing these Key Factors Together 221

15 The Future Roadmap 223

15.1 Introduction 223

15.2 Predictions for 2011 223

15.3 Predictions for 2016 227

15.4 Predictions for 2021 232

15.5 Predictions for 2026 233

15.6 Key New Applications 235

15.7 Key New Technologies 236

15.8 Key Changes in Networks 237

15.9 Major Growth Areas 238

15.10 Areas we Predict Will not be Successful 238

15.11 Implications for Stakeholders 239

Manufacturers 239

Operators 239

Service Providers 240

Regulators 240

Academics and Researchers 240

15.12 Differences from the Prediction Made in 2000 241

15.13 The Future in a Page 243

15.14 _ _ _ And the Elevator Pitch 244

List of Acronyms 245

Index 249